{"id":2744,"date":"2016-03-08T06:00:55","date_gmt":"2016-03-08T11:00:55","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.beerbusinessunplugged.com\/?p=2744"},"modified":"2016-03-06T12:53:20","modified_gmt":"2016-03-06T17:53:20","slug":"everything-is-in-a-state-of-flux-including-the-status-quo","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.beerbusinessunplugged.com\/?p=2744","title":{"rendered":"Everything is in a state of flux, including the status quo."},"content":{"rendered":"

\"Survey\"<\/a>The US is in the mist of one of the most important Presidential elections of our time and next week should end any speculation as to who will be the Republican and Democratic nominees. \u00a0\u00a0This election will certainly dominate all forms of media thru November and into next year.<\/p>\n

During the race for the White House in 1989, George H. W. Bush, in one of the most repeated comments in recent years, said, “Read my lips, no new taxes!” \u00a0Those of us who were around during that election remember that soon after Bush was in office, he doubled the beer excise tax. \u00a0The industry hit the brakes and growth was minimal.<\/p>\n

At this point, none of the candidates are supporting tax increases on beer. \u00a0At least not publically. \u00a0Nobody knows what will happen next year, but any increase in federal taxes will no doubt put a sizable dent in beer sales, similar to what happened 25 years ago. \u00a0Given recent sales numbers, the last thing the industry needs is a tax increase.<\/p>\n

As the industry gears up for its first big holiday, St. Patrick\u2019s Day, Nielsen numbers are not encouraging. \u00a0The February 20 data clearly shows that the industry could be facing a difficult year. \u00a0All volumes are down 3.3%, which puts the year-to-date number also at a negative, -0.3%. \u00a0The categories that showed increases were FMBs +13.7%, imports +6.2%, super premiums +3.5% and, of course, crafts up +2%.<\/p>\n

During this period, AB is down -5.7%, and -2.6% year-to-date, which translates into a share loss of 1.3 points. \u00a0MillerCoors is negative at -4.9%, and -2.1% year-to-date. \u00a0Both Miller Lite and Coors Light are down over -3%. \u00a0Crown, however, continues to do well at +13.4%, and now +15.7% year-to-date, which translates to a 1.0 increase in share.<\/p>\n

While one period does not make a year, indications are it could be a difficult year for many in the industry. \u00a0Even with these soft numbers, and depending on how the election unfolds, the industry continues to attract and create excitement. \u00a0Crafts, flavors, fruits, and now sodas are driving new categories and interest so the question is: will this continue?<\/p>\n

At this moment, in the middle of teaching Portland State\u2019s Business of Craft Brewing class, I have 50 students, more than double last year\u2019s class. \u00a0And there is even a wait list. \u00a0Students are from all over the world, including Switzerland, Wales, Australia, and Canada are taking this course, along with US students from multiple states. \u00a0There are many students enrolled in the cider side of the business, as well.<\/p>\n

The small, local crafts are now driving the business and are continuing this segment\u2019s dynamic growth, aided by ciders, flavors and sodas. \u00a0It appears that given the level of interest, such trends will continue. \u00a0None of these individuals are looking at industry trends or political ramifications for tax purposes, they just want to be in the beer business.<\/p>\n

The beer industry could come out of the 2016 election cycle with a target on its back and that is the very last issue the industry needs.\u00a0 Crown being the exception, everything is in a state of flux, except the status quo.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The US is in the mist of one of the most important Presidential elections of our time and next week should end any speculation as to who will be the Republican and Democratic nominees. \u00a0\u00a0This election will certainly dominate all forms of media thru November and into next year. During the race for the White […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_s2mail":"yes","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false,"jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false}}},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p2xRTi-Ig","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.beerbusinessunplugged.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2744"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.beerbusinessunplugged.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.beerbusinessunplugged.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.beerbusinessunplugged.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.beerbusinessunplugged.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2744"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/www.beerbusinessunplugged.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2744\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3217,"href":"https:\/\/www.beerbusinessunplugged.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2744\/revisions\/3217"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.beerbusinessunplugged.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2744"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.beerbusinessunplugged.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2744"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.beerbusinessunplugged.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2744"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}