{"id":4471,"date":"2017-12-05T07:00:19","date_gmt":"2017-12-05T12:00:19","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.beerbusinessunplugged.com\/?p=4471"},"modified":"2017-12-03T12:46:56","modified_gmt":"2017-12-03T17:46:56","slug":"the-future-is-purchased-by-the-present","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.beerbusinessunplugged.com\/?p=4471","title":{"rendered":"The future is purchased by the present.."},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Do products or breweries have a life cycle, or does a brand manager have the life cycle?\u00a0 Perhaps it is not the brand manager, but it is the CEO or Board of Directors that has a life cycle?\u00a0 Ask the many regional brands from 50 years ago, or ask Schlitz or Coors about life cycle.\u00a0 Yes, even Coors.\u00a0 What happened to these fast growing and popular beers who hit the skids and either died or became a memory?<\/p>\n

Schlitz and Coors were riding high in the 1970s, but then crashed.\u00a0 Budweiser and Miller Lite took off like a rocket and maintained that momentum for many years.\u00a0 Miller slowed some years ago. Budweiser, well we know that story and what has happened the last ten years.<\/p>\n

We have seen brands and breweries come and go.\u00a0 It is inevitable, and is once again happening.\u00a0 The recent numbers from California indicate there is another brand coming to an end.<\/p>\n

Thru the first half of the year, Constellation brands were up +14%, while AB and MC were down three percent.\u00a0 What makes these numbers even more astonishing is the fact that AB and MC depletions were down seven percent and between five\/six percent, respectively.\u00a0 It has been estimated that both companies have lost 10% of their business in the last two years.\u00a0 It could mean a total loss of up to 800,000 bbls. this year!\u00a0 This finding is astonishing considering that 20 years ago, AB and MC had 85% of the California market.\u00a0 This year they will come in at 50%, a drop of -35%.\u00a0 AB has lost over 2.5 million bbls.<\/p>\n

Through the 7th<\/sup> of October, in the state of California, Constellation has surpassed AB in terms of dollars.\u00a0 In dollars, Constellation is now the number one brand in off-premise scan data!\u00a0 Constellation has jumped 11%, and its share rose +2.9%, while AB numbers have dropped seven percent with a share loss of almost two percent, falling to 26%. This is verses 26.9% held by Constellation.\u00a0 Consider the magnitude of the losses given that AB owns Michelob Ultra, a hot brand.<\/p>\n

What is even more remarkable is that there are over 850 craft breweries in California!\u00a0 In San Diego alone, there are 150 tap rooms possessing an estimated six percent share of the on-premise market!\u00a0 Further impacting the market is the fact that that five of the top 10 crafts are down, with four of these crafts down double digits.<\/p>\n

Does California, in 2017, look like the other states in 2020? Will Constellation be the dominate brewery along with hundreds of craft breweries and taprooms?\u00a0 Will AB and MC continue to lose market share?\u00a0 Will Constellation dominate the chain real estate?<\/p>\n

Unless something very out of the ordinary takes place, the US beer industry should take notice of California, if they have done so already.\u00a0 A wholesaler with Constellation brands is sitting pretty, but if not, then what?\u00a0 Consider this scenario:\u00a0 Constellation attains a 50% share of a major market, add in the taproom craft business, along with the business from other crafts.\u00a0 How much, then, is left for the non-Constellation wholesaler?<\/p>\n

There is much speculation in regards to the craft breweries and their future survival.\u00a0 Perhaps there should be a similar discussion on the future of non-Constellation wholesalers?\u00a0 If the trends in California continue and spread across the country, these wholesalers could follow distributors of the past, \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0Distributors like Schlitz and Coors, to name a few, who have come, and sadly gone.\u00a0 Consolidate or become a minor player.<\/p>\n

The future is purchased by the present\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Do products or breweries have a life cycle, or does a brand manager have the life cycle?\u00a0 Perhaps it is not the brand manager, but it is the CEO or Board of Directors that has a life cycle?\u00a0 Ask the many regional brands from 50 years ago, or ask Schlitz or Coors about life cycle.\u00a0 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_s2mail":"yes","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false,"jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false}}},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p2xRTi-1a7","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.beerbusinessunplugged.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4471"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.beerbusinessunplugged.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.beerbusinessunplugged.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.beerbusinessunplugged.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.beerbusinessunplugged.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=4471"}],"version-history":[{"count":10,"href":"https:\/\/www.beerbusinessunplugged.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4471\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4491,"href":"https:\/\/www.beerbusinessunplugged.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4471\/revisions\/4491"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.beerbusinessunplugged.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=4471"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.beerbusinessunplugged.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=4471"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.beerbusinessunplugged.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=4471"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}