If something can not go on forever, it will stop….

Beer Marketer’s Insights just published the annual list of the nine beers Americans no longer drink. What makes this year’s list so interesting is that it has three new brands that were not on the list in 2012.

Of the three new brands, the new number one brand is Michelob Light, which has lost almost 70% of its volume since 2007.  This translates to a loss of 700,000 bbls. in overall volume.  Obviously, the great success of Michelob Ultra explains why Michelob Light is where it is today.

Labatt Blue is also new to this year’s list. Blue comes in holding the number nine spot down 28.8% since 2007.  Blue is also having trouble in Canada, losing half its market share from 2007, down from 10% to 5%.  The future of Labatt Blue in the US will depend on what happens at North American Breweries which will be under new management later this year.

Coming in at the number eight position is Budweiser.  Bud, which is down 28.8% since 2007, was once the largest selling beer in the US.  In fact, Budweiser still sold almost 17 million barrels of beer in 2012.

In the January 2013 post “All We are Doing is Rearranging the Chairs on the Titanic,” I highlighted the various reasons the nine beers have declined in volume.  These reasons included, line extensions, lack of marketing support or ineffective positioning, pricing, and other ongoing issues.  However, in the case of high volume brands, such as Budweiser, the product life cycle curve should be considered.

Historically, the beer industry has seen hundreds of brands and breweries come and go.  Even now a number of brands, which at one time were viable and good sellers, are being resurrected and called retro brands.  That being the case, and considering the product life cycle curve, the list of beers that Americans no longer drink in 2025 might include the following:  Bud light, Coors light, Miller Lite, Budweiser, Heineken, and Corona!

Moving forward another 10 years, the “no longer drinking” list might look like this:  Sierra Nevada, Yuengling, Fat Tire, Sam Adams Boston Lager, Blue Moon, and Dog Fish Head.  Consider by this time the list of top 10 best sellers. It is possible that those beers may not even exist today.

While as crazy as this may seem, consider how many of the top breweries of 1970 are still in business today?  How many of those brands are still around and which ones are still considered viable enough to sell and support?

When Miller Lite was first introduced in the early 1970s, how many industry people believed it would be as big as it eventually became?  How many industry people in 1980 believed that the Jos. Schlitz Brewing Co. would sell and eventually die with fifteen million bbls. in sales?  Finally, how many industry people believed that AB would be acquired by an international company, or in fact, any company?

The beer industry is, has been, and will always be an industry that consistently changes. So, if something cannot go on forever, it will stop!